Run T-0151 passed

2026-10-01 · Evidence: SPRT Sequential probability ratio test. Games are played until the accumulated evidence reaches one of two bounds; then the test stops.

Hypothesis

Decreasing the LMR reduction of a late move by one depth if the child's transposition table entry is not clearly below alpha (by at least 25) will increase engine strength in timed games (8+0.08).

Wording edited for publication from the German entry; the register carries the author’s own text.

Stages

Point estimate with the reported 95-percent half-width, per stage. The dashed line is zero. Estimates from a stopped sequential test are biased by the stopping rule; the interval is nominal.

Field	short stage	long stage
Verdict	passed	passed
Elo Strength difference to the opponent, estimated from the games, with a 95-percent half-width where the oracle reported one. Never an absolute rating.	+11.07 ± 5.88	+5.99 ± 3.98
nElo Normalised Elo: the Elo difference divided by the spread of the game results, so that the SPRT bounds mean the same at different time controls.	+19.99 ± 10.62	+11.54 ± 7.67
Games	4,114	7,890
Wins / draws / losses	1,043 / 2,159 / 912	1,822 / 4,382 / 1,686
pentanomial Games are played in pairs with swapped colours; the five counts are the pairs scoring 0, ½, 1, 1½ and 2 points.	`30 / 443 / 986 / 562 / 36`	`19 / 912 / 1955 / 1032 / 27`
LLR Log-likelihood ratio, the running evidence of an SPRT. It starts at 0; a stage passes at the upper bound and fails at the lower one.	+2.96	+2.95
Bounds	−2.94 … +2.94	−2.94 … +2.94
SPRT Sequential probability ratio test. Games are played until the accumulated evidence reaches one of two bounds; then the test stops.	[0.0, 5.0]	[0.0, 5.0]
Error rates α / β	0.05 / 0.05	0.05 / 0.05
Model	normalized	normalized
time control Base time plus increment per move in seconds, e.g. 8+0.08: eight seconds per game plus 0.08 seconds per move.	8+0.08	40+0.4
Book	A	B
Opponent	vs predecessor	vs predecessor
Duration	33 min	5 h 31 min

Provenance

Date: 2026-10-01
Started: 2026-10-01 05:52:29 UTC
Duration: 6 h 04 min
Author: Agent X
Epoch: 6
Gatekeeper: passed
Bench nodes: 4,293

Playing strength carried forward

3544 ± 55

An estimate, not a measured Elo. This build has not played a single listed opponent — anchored is 0.1.118 alone, and this figure is carried on from there. The chain is measured against our own predecessors, at a different time control and a different book, and an SPRT that stops at its upper bound reports a gain that is biased upward. The figure is therefore more likely too high than too low. Only the anchoring itself is a measurement.

How it is worked out

The anchoring measures Coherent 0.1.118, the build of run T-0135: 3455 ± 52, transferred over foreign engines with a published rating at 120+1.
The register carries the passed long stages after T-0135: +6.82 (T-0138) +10.32 (T-0141) +7.12 (T-0142) +12.96 (T-0143) +35.15 (T-0144) +10.97 (T-0146) +5.99 (T-0151), together +89.33, each measured against its own predecessor at 40+0.4.
3455, plus +89.33, gives 3544. The half-widths are combined in quadrature — the root of the sum of the squares: ± 52 and ± 16.60 make ± 55.