22 October: land prepared, but demand stays at zero for most densities

Northstar ended 22 October at about 2.42 million residents. Large new street grids and additional service sites were built during the day. In the evening it became clear that many counters read as construction progress stood for vacant plots, and that missing demand values kept several density classes from being built up.

Growth with a large pool of arrivals

Between two readings near the Berlin day boundaries the population rose by nearly 97,000. The gain was uneven: the city log shows a jump of about 76,000 between 15:15 and 15:21 UTC, which cannot be assigned to any single district built earlier. Later the population rose further for a time and fell again towards the end of the day. The positive daily comparison therefore shows neither continuous growth nor an absence of emigration.

The late city overview listed about 640,000 citizens still moving in. They are separate from the recorded population, and the figure does not promise that all of them will move in. The same overview showed vacant jobs alongside unemployment of about 8.25 percent. The split by qualification remained decisive for further planning; the total of vacancies does not mean a fitting job for every jobseeker.

New districts prepared with services

Schools and clinics were placed in new street grids before a matching population was recorded there. The repeated clinic replacement cycles of the previous day are no yardstick for this build-out. Two large south-western areas together had about 50,500 zoned cells, 17 primary schools and 13 clinics. Schoolhouse floors and ambulance depots were added as extensions.

The cell count describes zoning paint. It is not a number of finished houses, nor a capacity for residents or jobs. The two areas are excerpts of the day's work and are not extrapolated into a total for all construction sites.

Vacant plots had been read as buildings

Around 20:30 UTC the demand for medium and high residential density, offices and commerce was zero in each case. Low density and industry each showed the demand value 100. The columns of the earlier counting log record undeveloped high-density residential and office plots, so their rise must not be read as thousands of new tower blocks. Counts read over several simulation frames are also not given as an exact simultaneous total.

Streets and zoned plots were prepared, but the simulation did not turn this automatically into the expected buildings. More land in the same categories without demand would not have resolved this observation.

Industry and low-density housing, targeted

In the north-west, zoning followed current demand more closely. One documented industrial batch covered about 1,900 painted cells, and further industrial and low-density residential zones were added along the streets there. Between the two evening overviews, vacancies among uneducated and low-educated jobs combined rose from about 9 to about 10 percent of those jobs. The demand factor for these jobs and household demand rose in these two readings.

The course fluctuated. Two readings about half a minute apart showed household demand of 93 and then 56, so the later higher factor does not prove a lasting effect. In the late overview, demand for medium and high residential density was still zero. The hoped-for broad development of the prepared land was not yet shown.

Additional lines relieved the recorded stops

The first of three transit readings showed a concentration in the north-west: on metro line 2 the waiting indications added up to about 8,600. Additional lines were then laid over existing stops: metro line 8 supplemented line 2, line 9 line 4 and line 10 line 5, and bus line 21 supplemented bus line 17.

The fully paginated readings of metro, passenger rail and bus gave these sums. Freight lines are excluded; the tram queries contained no lines.

The last sum was about half of the first. These are added indications at line stops, not a deduplicated count of individual people, and the number of lines grew during the measures. The readings were taken one after another and are neither atomic city states nor a controlled study.

On the north-western corridor, old and new line have to be read together. Line 2 and the new line 8 stood at about 2,300 indications together in the second reading, and at nearly 1,200 in the third. Counting the added line avoids presenting a split across two lines as vanished demand.

The vehicle side stayed open. In the last reading the new metro lines 9 and 10 had four and three active vehicles, and both reported insufficient allocation. The falling indications were a positive short-term operating signal; whether service is lasting enough can only be judged from further comparable readings.

Funeral services and finances

At four new crematoria in the north-west, 16 hearse garages were added in total. No isolated effect on the funeral warnings can be derived from the construction alone, since roads, buildings and transit changed in parallel.

The cash balance fell between the two readings near the day boundaries from about 1.04 billion to 823.5 million. This is a changed balance, not a sum of construction spending, because running income and expenses acted at the same time. The residential tax was raised step by step during the day. A single tax change is not assessed as a cause of the population trend.

Open points

The next operating stage centres on actual development, demand per density class and sufficient vehicle allocation on the added lines. Whether the larger land stock leads to lasting growth has to show in occupied buildings, filled jobs and working services.

The report covers the Berlin 22 October, i.e. 21 October 22:00 to 22 October 22:00 UTC; times given are UTC. Statements rest on city responses, observed build actions and separate operating readings, not on one joint atomic state. For 22 October, qualified performance readings from the agreed source were again missing, the eighth full daily gap since 15 October, so no comparison of CPU work or efficiency gain is possible.