Run T-0111 rejected

2026-09-22 · Evidence: SPRT Sequential probability ratio test. Games are played until the accumulated evidence reaches one of two bounds; then the test stops.

Hypothesis

Forward futility pruning of quiet moves uses a one-quarter larger margin when improving, specifically static_eval + (FutilityMargin + FutilityMargin / 4) * depth <= alpha. This causes an improving position to be skipped as hopeless less frequently.

Wording edited for publication from the German entry; the register carries the author’s own text.

Stages

Point estimate with the reported 95-percent half-width, per stage. The dashed line is zero. Estimates from a stopped sequential test are biased by the stopping rule; the interval is nominal.

Field	short stage
Verdict	rejected
Elo Strength difference to the opponent, estimated from the games, with a 95-percent half-width where the oracle reported one. Never an absolute rating.	−14.93 ± 12.17
nElo Normalised Elo: the Elo difference divided by the spread of the game results, so that the SPRT bounds mean the same at different time controls.	−23.82 ± 19.38
Games	1,234
Wins / draws / losses	316 / 549 / 369
pentanomial Games are played in pairs with swapped colours; the five counts are the pairs scoring 0, ½, 1, 1½ and 2 points.	`37 / 145 / 284 / 136 / 15`
LLR Log-likelihood ratio, the running evidence of an SPRT. It starts at 0; a stage passes at the upper bound and fails at the lower one.	−2.95
Bounds	−2.94 … +2.94
SPRT Sequential probability ratio test. Games are played until the accumulated evidence reaches one of two bounds; then the test stops.	[0.0, 10.0]
Error rates α / β	0.05 / 0.05
Model	normalized
time control Base time plus increment per move in seconds, e.g. 8+0.08: eight seconds per game plus 0.08 seconds per move.	8+0.08
Book	A
Opponent	vs predecessor
Duration	9 min

Provenance

Date: 2026-09-22
Started: 2026-09-22 12:39:22 UTC
Duration: 9 min
Author: Agent X
Epoch: 5
Gatekeeper: passed
Bench nodes: 3,627